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Lynchburg Market Update - Dan Vollmer

Lynchburg Market Update


AWest Beckwith Mountain in the Gunnison National Forest, Colorado.; Shutterstock ID 13263088; Project/Title: Fodors.com Slideshow; Destination: Colorado; Downloader: Jessica Parkhills summer winds down and fall approaches, its a great time to take a look back at the state of the real estate market in Lynchburg.  Overall its been a strong year with positive numbers in terms of sales and sales prices.  I have written here and elsewhere about the shift in inventory this year – meaning many pockets of our market have seen a dip in inventory, which has led to buyers deciding quicker and paying close to list price for homes that fall into an are or price range with few options.

Let’s first take a look at the overall stats for the greater Lynchburg market.  Keep in mind the Lynchburg MLS encompasses Lynchburg City and the four surrounding counties (Bedford, Campbell, Appomattox and Amherst).  All stats and figures from here on out have been sourced from the Lynchburg MLS.

From January 1 through August 31 of this year, we saw 3367 new residential listings.  This compares to 3415 for the same time period last year; 3401 in 2014; 3214 in 2013 and 3068 in 2012.  So while overall the number of new listings is up over the past 5 years, you can see this year we have experienced a little bit of a dip from 2014/15.

Now let’s focus on sales for the same period of time.  This year from January 1 through August 31 buyers closed on 2009 residential properties.  Looking at it another way, if our market added 3367 new listings, and sold 2009, we had a net of 13.calendar


The biggest question most sellers want to have answered is ‘where are home values headed?’  To answer that, let’s look at the average sales price over the previous 5 years.  In 2012 the average sales price (again, January-August) was $169,185.  In 2013 that number improved to an average of $176,031.  The following year in 2014 the average was $174,331 (a marginal dip), followed in 2015 by an average of $175,225.  This year, the average sales price jumped to $183,421.  This reflects a 5-year increase of $14,236 or 8.4%.

Finally, combined with steadily rising sales prices, the average days on market has seen a comparable decrease.  In 2012, the number of days on market for sold properties was 155 days.  The following year (2013) it dropped to 146; then in 2014 it was 137 and in 2015 again down to 134.  This year, 2016, the average days on market for sold homes through August was 124 days.  That’s a decrease over 5 years of 20%!

To recap, looking back over 5 years of data, this year we have seen:

– A decrease in the number of new homes coming on the market

– An increase in the number of closed homes

– A steady increase in the average sales price

– An equally steady decrease in the average time on the market

It always bears repeating that these figures represent a broad overview of the greater Lynchburg market – for certain areas and price ranges these findings may not apply as equally.  Its worth talking to your preferred real estate professional to find out these important data points for your home.

Questions, comments, or have an idea for a future article?  Email me at dan@DanVollmer.com.

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