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The Scales are Shifting - Dan Vollmer

The Scales are Shifting

Late last week I met with a long time client to talk about the market and discuss listing his house.  I think it always helps to know some basic facts about the current state of Screen Shot 2016-08-30 at 9.38.03 AMthe market, so I ran some numbers.  This research reinforced a few things I’ve said to clients all year, so I wanted to share just a few stats with you today.

Our market has lagged in inventory most of this year.  When I say ‘lagged’ in inventory, I mean that we have been off of our historical averages by a couple hundred homes every month.  So when buyers go looking for a home, there are fewer to choose from.  Which leads many buyers to decide faster, driving down days on market and keeping prices steady.

My first step is to see how many homes are currently on the market, and second how many have sold in the past 30 days.  Generally speaking, this is an industry-standard way of determining how many ‘months of inventory’ is available at any given point in time.  I should also mention that our market includes homes in Lynchburg and the four surrounding counties – everything form Amherst to Altavista, Bedford to Appomattox.

Sign1In our market, there are (or were as of late last week) 1507 homes on the market.  These are active listings, excluding any that are under contract or pending closing.  In the 30 days prior, there had been 288 homes that closed.  If you divide 1507 by 288, that leaves us with a 5.23 month supply of homes.

Of course, that’s a theoretical number – every day more homes are listed, while other homes accept offers and still other listings expire.  But that reflects a healthy turnover in the greater Lynchburg market.  Narrowing our focus to Bedford County, there are/were 386 active listings and 80 sold properties over the past 30 days.  That leaves BedCo with a 4.825 month supply!

Focusing even more on the 24551 zip code, there were 157 active homes on the market and 48 sales in the previous 30 days.  That leaves the folks in Forest with a 3.27 month supply!  If you’ve been searching for a home in Forest, you probably sensed that there aren’t many to choose from, and those that are on the market don’t last long.
The good news for sellers – like my client – is that if you have a home to sell in Forest, right now is probably the best time in the past 8 years to put your home on the market.  And if you’re a buyer looking in Forest, you know you have to be ready to pull the trigger as soon as a home that meets your criteria comes on the market.

If you’re interested in seeing these numbers for the neighborhood or zip code where you live, call or text me anytime at 434.420.1238 or shoot me an email at dan@DanVollmer.com.

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